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27.07.2012 10:13 AM
GBP/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis (Theory on Numerical Analysis) for July 27, 2012.

Use time frame of M15 to determine the lower and the higher price of yesterday, because it's more precise.

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Tip: Some traders use the Fibonacci in the wrong way.
The Fibonacci retracement is VALID only if the price movements on daily basis, it should be between lower and highest price of that day.

 

Thursday's historic (26th of July 2012).

Open: 1,5499
High: 1,5724
Low: 1,5471
Close: 1,5688



 

Function = (High - (High - Low)) * 38%.
The market will indicate a Bullish opportunity on level of: (Low + (Function / 100)) = 1.5665 (+Spread).
Pivot Point (1) = (High + Low + Close) / 3 = 1.5628.
Pivot Point (2) = (High + Low + 2 * Close) / 4 = 1.5643.
If the price closes below 1.5643 or/and 1.5630, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity on the level of 1.5628 (-Spread).

 

 

 

Take Profit Formulas:

 

Sometimes it seems that the market doesn't follow our forecast, therefore in order to get out spank from the market before losing your profit.
Then you have to calculate the market movements.


Market Movements = (High / (High + Low)) * 100

 

  • This image is no longer relevant• If market movements is between 50.20 and 50.40, so it should close your position after 1H:30M (Around 40pips to 60pips).
  • • If market movements is between 50.40 and 50.60, so it should close your position after 3H:15M (Around 80 pips to 120 pips).
    • If market movements is between 50.60 and 50.99, so it should close your position after 8H:00M (Around 140 pips to 200 pips).
  •  

Apply Formulas:

Market Movements = (1.5724 / (1.5724 + 1.5471)) * 100

Market Movements = 50.40

 

Trading Recommendations:

 

According to the previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.5430 and 1.5803.
• Buy above 1.5668 (78% of Fibonacci retracement levels) with a first target of 1.5748, it might resume to 1.5784.
• Below 1.5627 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels), look for further downside with 1.5533 and 1.5475 targets.

 

 

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Technical Levels:

R3: 1,6037
R2: 1,5881
R1: 1,5784
PP: 1,5628
S1: 1,5531
S2: 1,5375
S3: 1,5278

 

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Chart Tools:
• It should be noted that the market was very stable and the trend was also very clear (upward).
• Range was: 253 pips (downward).
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: (High + Low) / 2 = 1.5598. (The key level to confirm a bullish market).
• Volatility is 394.62 so the market has called for a high volatile.

 

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Observation (s):

  •  

• Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and the scenarios invalidated.
• Use historic prices to determine the future prices.
• Fibonacci retracement uses to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance, and playing according to in this kind of period.
• Fibonacci is in a range trader (it is looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down, if you sell or buy for a long term in this period you'll go sure for losing your profit.

 

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Warning (s):

  • Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
  • Usually the market has a high volatile, if the last day had a huge volatility.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: [email protected].

Mourad El Keddani,
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