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31.08.2012 05:40 PM
- Expectations About the Speech Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole - Fundamental Analysis, for August 31, 2012

 

Unemployment rate remained in the Eurozone unchanged due to unexpected rise of consumer price index in July which pushed the euro higher leaving its lateralization to the dollar.
Other leading currencies also managed to recover positions, but the dollar had better times. In their turn, the European stock markets closed Friday's session with operating profit of 1.4%, very high values ​​that were handled in the upcoming days.
These movements tend to occur later this month, contributing to profit-taking corrections while contract expirations generate some rallies expected on short notice.
There is a huge expectation ahead of the speech of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke which will be delivered at 10: 00 ET as part of the symposium that is held in Jackson Hole.
Markets waiting anxiously for any Bernanke’s announcement, in anticipation of the steps which will be followed by the Fed at its next policy meeting which will take place in two weeks. Without embargo expectations definitely should be lower. It will be difficult for Bernanke to leave many doors open with so many days ahead, with much employment data and August inflation before that meeting.
The question goes is whether the Fed will implement a plan to stimulate the economy by buying cash bonds, which would result in a huge boost to the stock markets, especially European currencies.
The undersigned impression is that this plan is going to be implemented, but not on the date when it is clear who will be deployed effectively. What you might expect is Bernanke’s usual skepticism sample together with pessimism about the future of the U.S. economy.
Technically, this possibility can be clearly seen. EUR / USD crossing has a significant uptrend on the daily chart, perhaps with some signs of exhaustion and we can see a correction in the coming hours. But apparently such behavior indicated that the single currency will fetch area from 1.2850 to 1.30 in a few days before changing its course to the downside again.
After the usual downward correction 1.2605 which could push the euro back to 1.2590 we will see another scenario. Overcoming of this resistance, will stretch the rally to 1.2630 and above 1.2655 / 60. Above that level the next target is 1.2705. On the downside 1.2570 is support now, with the next targets of 1.2535 and 1.2515.
The pound has a bullish outlook against the dollar in the short term, although somewhat more moderate. The yen remains unchanged, currencies linked to oil gain new force before the rise of the barrel price in the last few hours. But there are no major changes, and the Australian dollar, ailing all week, resumes an upward trend that can be much longer if it exceeds 1.0410 during the American session.

 

 

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