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08.01.2016 10:05 AM
Gold wave analysis for January 8, 2016

The gold price has reached important short-term resistance levels in the $1,100-$1,110 area. A pullback is justified, but for bulls to remain in control, the price should not fall below $1,080 and overlap the high of the wave 1.

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There are two possibilities regarding the wave count for gold. My favorite scenario that the long-term low is in, implies a new impulsive move has started that will change the long-term trend to bullish again. However, in order for it to hold, we need first to see an impulsive rise in gold. Up to now, we have seen only a rise in 3 wave as shown on the 4-hour chart above. It is a good sign that the gold price has manged to break above the Ichimoku cloud, but bulls need to see a pullback of the wave 4 and then a new high for the wave 5 to complete the first impulsive wave of the new trend.

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Finally the weekly chart shows some movement. As expected by the oversold stochastic, the price has moved higher towards the important short-term resistance of the kijun-sen (yellow indicator). A weekly close above it will open the way for a move towards the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls should be cautious now.
Alexandros Yfantis,
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Alexandros Yfantis
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