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20.11.2012 01:13 PM
EUR/USD. Forecast for November 20, 2012

 

Sales of existing U.S. homes rose to 4.97 million annual rate against 4.69 million in September (revised from 4.75 million). Yesterday it was reported that, according to Goldman Sachs and Barclays, Q3 GDP would be increased at about a 2.9% annual rate (the unrevised reading was 2.0%). The data will be published on November 29. Bloomberg reported that Fed may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds next year after the expiration of a program to extend the maturities of assets on its balance sheet, which is known as Operation Twist. It is forecast that the Fed will start buying about $45 billion a month, as well with no time limits, more than doubling the $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities the central bank is currently purchasing. Vice Chairman Janet Yellen dropped a hint about it a week ago.
Euro Area finance ministers will meet today. As it is expected there will be talks on Greece’s debt. However, if there is no unanimous decision, then it will be taken during the next meeting held November 26.
The negative aspect is possible bankruptcy of Cyprus, as the government, unlike the Greece’s government, wants to get bailout on its terms, not the terms of EU. However, there should be enough money for three or four weeks in Cyprus treasury. Yesterday Moody's downgraded France’s rating to Aa1 from Aaa followed Standard and Poor’s cut the national rating in January. Reaction of investors was moderate.
At 17:30 (GMT+4) data on housing starts in October is to be published (forecast 850K against 870K in September). At 21:15 (GMT+4) Ben Bernanke is to speak.
Thus, the rise on markets is expected today. Technical targets are determined by the resistances of trendlines on the 4H chart. These are 1.2848, 1.2867, and 1.2900/09.

 

 

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