05.04.2019 11:54 AM
EURUSD: A trade agreement with China will be ready in 4 weeks. The Fed officials expect economic growth

The euro slightly recovered its position in pair with the US dollar, however, but remained in the side channel after the news that a trade agreement between the US and China could be concluded in the near future. Yesterday, American President Donald Trump held a meeting with Vice Premier of China Liu He in the oval office of the White House, and then gave comments on the eve of the announcement of the date of the summit.

According to the statement of the American leader, it will be a great agreement that suits both parties, since the negotiations are going very well. If a trade agreement is reached with China, a summit will be held, but no provisional date has yet been set. Trump said that the results of the negotiations will be known in the next four weeks.

The American President also returned to the topic of the wall on the border with Mexico, once again reminding everyone that if the Mexican side does not help with the construction of the wall, the White House administration will decide on imposing duties on its cars.

Last night, a number of speeches were made by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, who generally spoke about the same thing, outlining their vision of the future of the American economy.

Speaking at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its President John Williams said that the outlook for the economy is positive, as unemployment remains low and there are no signs of strong inflationary pressures. Williams expects GDP growth of about 2% in 2019.

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that an increase in interest rates by the US Central Bank is still possible this year. However, it will be necessary provided that the economy meets expectations. Mester also considers the current completion of interest rate increases by the Fed to be entirely appropriate.

The Fed representative expects continued economic growth and a strong labor market and predicts that inflation will remain around 2%, while GDP growth in 2019 will be above 2%, as the economy is doing well, and the recent weakness is probably temporary.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The bears did not succeed in consolidating below the middle of the lateral channel in the area of 1.1220 yesterday, and today this is their main task. Only under this condition will the pressure on risky assets continue, which may lead to a renewal of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1185. Under the scenario of the upward correction of the euro, the upper limit of the side channel in the region of 1.1250 remains good resistance.

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We should not forget about the important report on the change in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector, which will be published this afternoon. Even a weak report on the state of the labor market can lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, as the recent trend has been reduced to the demand for safe-haven assets with the release of weak but important fundamental data.

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