03.05.2019 09:42 AM
EUR/USD. May 3. The trading system "Regression Channels". An important day for the US currency

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -51.6806

The EUR/USD pair starts the last trading day of the week in a downward movement. The dollar strengthened against the European currency, the trend for the instrument has changed to a downward one. Today, important macroeconomic reports will begin to arrive almost in the morning. First, the preliminary value of the consumer price index for April will be published in Europe. According to experts, inflation can accelerate to 1.6% y/y. Unfortunately, even this value is below the ECB target level of 2.0%. From the States, today we will receive information on the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the so-called NonFarm Payrolls, the average wage, the unemployment rate and two indexes of business activity in the services sector. Of course, the main report of the day is NonFarm Payrolls. The forecast is 185,000 new jobs. Any value above this figure is almost guaranteed to cause new purchases of US currency. Below – small sales, as the trend is downward. Thus, the volatility in the market today may be even higher than on the day of the Fed meeting, since, by and large, the American regulator did not surprise the markets, and today traders will have at least three important reports. Thus, if the NonFarm Payrolls report does not fail, we expect the downward movement to continue.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1,1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108 are now relevant. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a round of upward correction.

It is recommended to open buy orders not earlier than reversing the pair above the moving average line with the first target at 1.1230. Given a large number of reports planned for today, the option of changing the trend can not be excluded.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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