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Analisis Forex & Kajian: GBPUSD: Another failure of Boris Johnson and the suspension of the UK Parliament. Will the pound continue to grow?
time 10.09.2019 09:22 AM
time Relevance up to, 11.09.2019 09:06 AM

On Monday, the growth of the British pound slowed during the North American session, as there are no objective reasons for further growth amid the political crisis in the UK.

All the efforts of the incumbent Prime Minister were again defeated by the impregnable opposition parliament, which was the final point before the big suspension of the parliament.

Yesterday, the British Parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson's proposal to hold an early general election. The Prime Minister's proposal to hold early elections was supported by only 293 parliamentarians, while it was necessary to gain 434 votes. Thus, the situation around Brexit has reached an impasse, which may affect the further upward potential of the GBPUSD pair. The British Parliament, in addition to insisting on an extension of the postponement of leaving the EU, doesn't have any particular options, as the EU refuses to resume negotiations and revise the agreement.

However, Boris Johnson insists that Britain will leave the EU on October 31. It is unclear how he wants to implement since last week a bill was passed that did not allow Britain to exit without an agreement. The Prime Minister said that at a meeting with EU representatives in October this year, he will try to do everything for the government to withdraw the country from the European Union promptly.

As for the further growth prospects of the pound, only good statistics on the labor market can lead to a breakthrough in yesterday's resistance at 1.2390. If the bulls fail to cope with this level, a second downward correction in the trading instrument to the lower border of the channel of 1.2240, which was formed yesterday after an unsuccessful attempt by bears to return to the market, is not excluded. The lack of clearer guidance on Brexit, of course, will deter large buyers, but the demolition of several stop orders above 1.2390 and a return to this level should not be ruled out either.

EURUSD

Yesterday's data on the state of the US economy did not greatly affect the rate of the pair. According to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation expectations for the year ahead fell in August. From the survey, prices are projected to increase only by 2.4% in a year, against the expected increase of 2.6% a month earlier. In three years, inflation will be 2.5% against the forecast of 2.6% in July this year.

A sharp increase in American borrowing in July will support the economy in the 3rd quarter of this year. According to the Federal Reserve, US consumers are not very afraid of the expected slowdown in economic growth by the end of the year and continue to actively use credit instruments. The report indicated that consumer lending grew by 6.8%, and total consumer lending in July grew by $23.3 billion compared with the previous month. Economists had forecast growth of $15.8 billion.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared to past forecasts, as a market activity before the important decision of the European Central Bank is quite low. Most likely, the bears will again try to return to the support of 1.1020, but the demand for the euro will resume after updating the lows around 1.0990 and 1.0950. A break in the range of 1.1055 will increase the demand for the trading instrument and lead to the updating of local maximums in the area of 1.1090 and 1.1120, which was not done yesterday.

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