EUR/USD

Expectations of investors on good US data came true yesterday. The volume of orders for durable goods increased by 2.4% in December against the forecast of 1.2%, the root index (excluding vehicles) still showed negative -0.1%. But then everything is fine: the business activity index in the manufacturing sector of Richmond amounted to 20 points in January against expectations of -3 and -5 in December, consumer confidence from the Conference Board increased from 128.2 to 131.6 in January. The US stock index S&P 500 grew 1.01%. Also yesterday it was reported that a vaccine was developed in Hong Kong against the Wuhan coronavirus. If clinical trials are suspiciously fast, in a few weeks, then this topic can be considered exhausted. Note that the former chief state sanitary doctor of the Russian Federation Gennady Onishchenko previously reported that this coronavirus is successfully treated with existing drugs.

Today, the main event will be the Federal Reserve meeting. The meeting is passing, that is, without making any decisions and without publishing the Fed's economic forecasts. But there is one caveat - during Jerome Powell's press conference, the issue of the duration of the current program for repo operations may be discussed. Rumor has it that the program will be diluted with the repurchase of longer-term securities, which in fact will no longer be hidden by QE. This could put pressure on the dollar.

On the daily chart, the price did not exactly fulfill the target level of 138.2% Fibonacci, but the price tested the November support range. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning up, the price is near the embedded line of the price channel. Consolidation above it will lead to corrective growth of the euro, to the area of the Fibonacci level of 123.5% (1.1080).

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator formed a convergence with the price. Here, the 1.1080 level is a support for the January consolidation. The probability of correction is 70%.