Blue lines- bearish channel

Bitcoin is moving sideways nearly 4 months now around the $20,000 price level. Price has reached very close to the bearish channel upper boundary. Over the next couple of weeks I expect Bitcoin to start a new trend. My preferred scenario is for Bitcoin to continue its previous medium-term trend and stay inside the channel. I expect a rejection at channel resistance and a move towards $12,000. Confirmation of this scenario will come with the break below $18,500. Least favorable scenario is for Bitcoin to break out of the bearish channel and provide a bigger bounce higher towards $28,000-$30,000. Confirmation of this scenario will come with a break above $22,800.