Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Wednesday after a correction on Thursday. Thus, after several weeks of actual sideways movement, the downward trend has resumed. At the moment, the pair's quotes are again approaching their local and 20-year lows, so they can be updated in the near future. The euro has not managed to correct normally over the past two months, but we have trends of a different scale on the 30-minute timeframe. And at the moment we have a new downward trend. It is not a fact that traders will be able to overcome the level of 1.0359 on the second attempt. Still, the pair is very low for itself, so some traders already doubt the expediency of short positions at such low price values. Nevertheless, the euro may continue to fall, as the vast majority of factors continue to work in favor of the dollar. By the way, the European Union released another report on inflation on Friday, which showed another acceleration in price growth. In the US, this would mean that the Federal Reserve would have to reconsider the pace of the rate hike, but this means nothing in the European Union, since the European Central Bank has not even raised the rate for the first time. Therefore, from our point of view, the euro's decline on Friday is logical.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
A huge set of trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. The movement was quite volatile. The first sell signal was formed near the level of 1.0465, after which the price dropped to the level of 1.0433 and rebounded from it. It was possible to earn about 10 points and it was necessary to open long positions immediately. Then the pair returned to 1.0465 and bounced off this level three times. Accordingly, longs should have been closed in profit for another 10 points and opened new shorts. The price began to fall and this time did not stop near the level of 1.0433, but continued to move to the downside and went even below 1.0383. Therefore, a short position should have been closed at the nearest buy signal, which was formed when consolidating above 1.0383. Beginners could earn about 70-80 points already on these three deals. The last signal for longs could also be worked out and it was also possible to make a profit, but it still formed quite late, so it could also be missed.
How to trade on Monday:
A new downtrend has formed on the 30-minute time frame, but there is still no trend line or channel, which makes trading a bit more difficult. If in the future the pair will trade in a trendy and volatile way, then it's okay, since you can earn money on a good movement simply by levels. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0354, 1.0383, 1.0433, 1.0465, 1.0483, 1.0535. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. It is a public holiday in America in honor of Independence Day on Monday. Meanwhile, no important events are scheduled for this day in Europe either. Most likely, volatility will be very low tomorrow, and there will be no trend.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
