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16.01.2023 05:23 PM
Mike Novogratz: The cryptocurrency market's recovery will take time, and other shocks are possible.

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When the information on American inflation was revealed last Thursday, bitcoin started a new wave of dramatic and quick increases, as can be seen on the 4-hour TF. As a result, we continue to correlate this occurrence with the strengthening of bitcoin and do not think it will last for very long. It should be kept in mind that one report on inflation cannot possibly counteract all the unfavorable information that traders have had access to over the past year and that may still affect the bitcoin market. Thus, after surpassing the $18,500 barrier, we received a buy signal, and it would have been sinful to ignore it. It might be regarded as a sell signal if the price is set below the level of $20,400. A trend line cannot be drawn because the upward movement is not yet a trend.

In the meantime, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, made some noteworthy remarks. In particular, he claimed that bitcoin won't go away since roughly 150 million people throughout the world have chosen to keep some of their savings in cryptocurrency. He added that while society is interested in decentralized finance, other cryptocurrencies would also not disappear. Everyone will soon observe how companies like Ark Invest resume their investments in the bitcoin sector. Recovery won't happen quickly. The market remains fragile, as are many of the cryptocurrency businesses impacted by the failure of FTX and Three Arrows Capital. Trust-building takes time and effort, and it is not simple. However, Novogratz thinks bitcoin has a bright future ahead of it.

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We somewhat concur with his viewpoint, but we also think that bitcoin will expand (with the update of the most recent maximum), if not soon. Some people will like Bitcoin, but not all of them. The new, exponential growth of cryptocurrencies is improbable given the QT programs' efforts to shrink the money supply, the high growth rates of many central banks, and other factors. As a result, the price of bitcoin may gradually rise during 2023, though it is currently impossible to imagine it exceeding $30,000 per coin. Of course, it will be necessary to closely monitor the technical and background fundamental signs. The latter makes trading for an increase both conceivable and necessary.

The "bitcoin" quotes on the 4-hour time frame have surpassed the $18,500 mark, allowing the first cryptocurrency's rise to continue with the target of $24,350. While long positions can still be held open for the time being, we believe that a fix below the level of $20,400 will suggest that they should be closed in favor of short positions with targets of $18,500 and $17,582. For Bitcoin to continue advancing, the underlying background should ideally steadily improve as it begins a new "bullish" trend.

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