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07.12.2023 01:17 PM
EUR/USD tries to attract buyers

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The EUR/USD pair is attempting to attract some buyers around the mid-1.0700 area, or the lowest level since November 14, reached yesterday.

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At the beginning of the European session, amid a weaker U.S. dollar, spot prices maintain modest intraday growth, although lacking bullish confidence. The retreat of the U.S. dollar from the two-week high reached on Wednesday can be explained by some profit-taking against the backdrop of optimistic expectations from the Federal Reserve.

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Additionally, the strong demand for the Japanese yen is another factor confirming pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, the weaker tone in the stock markets should help limit the losses of the safe-haven dollar and restrict any significant upward movement in the EUR/USD pair.

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Furthermore, recent dovish rhetoric from European Central Bank officials is holding back new bullish bets on the common currency. Just on Tuesday, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel stated that the Central Bank may refrain from further rate hikes, considering a significant decline in inflation. It may also completely change its monetary policy.

The likelihood is increasing that the cumulative rate cut in 2024 will amount to 142 basis points, restraining the EUR/USD pair from rising.

As for today's released economic data, industrial production in Germany – the most important economic center in the Eurozone – fell by 0.4% in October, compared to forecasts of a 0.2% decline and the -1.3% observed in the previous month.

To gain some intraday momentum in the EUR/USD pair, it is worth waiting for the release of weekly data on initial jobless claims in the U.S. today. However, the main focus should be on Friday's release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Given the aforementioned mixed fundamental background, it is prudent to await strong subsequent purchases before confirming that the recent sharp pullback from the area above the three-month high reached in November has exhausted itself. Refer to the chart below for levels worth paying attention to.

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