Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currency

The first test of 1.1734 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was only just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose only 10 pips, and the bullish move ended there.

Concerns that European states holding large US dollar assets in the form of bonds and equities might use them as a tool of pressure on the Trump administration's trade policy yesterday stimulated increased interest in the euro. Investors worried about a possible transatlantic trade confrontation actively shifted funds from the dollar into the euro, strengthening the European currency. Experts suggest that such an outcome is quite possible given Trump's hard rhetoric and protectionist course. European governments, feeling the negative effects on their economies, may resort to retaliatory measures using financial levers. Disposing of US assets held by European central banks and sovereign funds could exert significant pressure on the dollar and destabilise the US financial system. Nevertheless, such actions carry risks for Europe itself. A sharp decline in the dollar could hurt European exports and trigger an economic downturn. Moreover, such actions could be perceived as hostile and escalate conflicts.

As for reports, there are no euro-area economic reports scheduled for the first half of today; only public remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel are planned. Officials will likely touch on the Greenland situation, but their comments are unlikely to materially affect the euro's trajectory. Most likely, the market will prefer to wait for Trump's speech, which could radically change the balance of forces.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the execution of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for buying

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro around 1.1728 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1763. At 1.1763, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip move from the entry. You can count on euro gains only after a firm tariff stance by Trump. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1710 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels 1.1728 and 1.1763.

Scenarios for selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1710 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1680, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the price tests 1.1728 twice. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels 1.1710 and 1.1680.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.