On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday consolidated below the 1.3341–1.3352 level, after which the decline continued toward the support level of 1.3199–1.3214. A rebound from this zone would favor the British currency and lead to some growth toward 1.3341–1.3352. A consolidation below 1.3199–1.3214 would allow traders to expect further decline toward 1.3139 and 1.3016.

The wave situation has once again shifted to a bearish outlook. The last completed upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. The news background remains weak for the pound, and geopolitics gives bears an almost complete advantage in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the U.S. dollar in recent months.

Friday's news background could have slightly supported the pound. The only report—UK retail sales for February—came in more positive than traders expected. Retail volumes declined by 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.7% month-over-month. On a yearly basis, volumes increased by 2.5%, exceeding expectations. However, volumes still declined compared to January, which could have disappointed the bulls. Yet the bulls were not bothered by this. Most likely, they didn't even notice the report.

The pound has been falling for five consecutive days, and this is unlikely due to the retail sales data. In my opinion, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar continues, leading to declines in other currencies. The dollar is rising solely because of the war in the Middle East. Even after a month of active fighting in the region, investors continue to expect the worst—further escalation, higher oil and gas prices. As a result, the flight to the safe-haven dollar continues.

Whether one likes it or not, this is currently the only reason for the decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Therefore, the pound has no reason to be upset over minor factors. It is being dragged down like dead weight by events in the Middle East.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, but this gave bulls absolutely no advantage. A rebound from the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.3439) once again worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidation below the 1.3340–1.3369 level suggests further decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3215. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became even more bearish over the past reporting week. For seven consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing short positions and reducing long positions.

• Long positions increased by 2,166
• Short positions decreased by 4,927

The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 46,000 vs. 105,000. Bears have dominated in recent weeks, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not fully believe in a long-term bearish trend for the pound, but everything now depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy—but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East.

Over the past year, the pound appeared to be a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, first a correction began within the bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East intensified almost daily. Geopolitics remains the sole driver of U.S. dollar strength.

Economic Calendar (U.S. & UK):

March 30: The economic calendar contains no significant events. The information background is expected to have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sell positions were possible after consolidation below the 1.3341–1.3352 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3199–1.3214. These trades can still be held today. Buy positions may be considered after a rebound from the 1.3199–1.3214 level, targeting 1.3341–1.3352.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.