Bitcoin remains below $80,000 today. Ethereum is trading at $2,311.

The backdrop is tense. The Fear & Greed Index shows how quickly optimism evaporated — it now stands at 48, the neutral zone, down from 55 a week ago and 70 a month ago. A reading around 48 doesn't indicate panic; market participants have simply stopped paying for risk. To me, this signals that buyers are waiting for the Fed decision rather than buying the dip.

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday; the meeting began today. The probability of the rate being left unchanged is about 90%, so a pause is already priced in, and traders will search for signals on whether another hike is possible before year?end. ETF demand is providing partial support. On Monday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $110 million, ending a two?day outflow streak that totaled roughly $770 million. But that inflow is one?off and far smaller than the prior outflows, so it's not enough to trigger a reversal.

I believe Wednesday's focus will be on rhetoric, not the rate. If the Fed chair keeps the door open for a December hike, Bitcoin will struggle to hold above $79,000, and I allow for a test of that zone immediately after the statement. A return above $80,700 is possible only with a dovish tone and strong tech earnings; otherwise, every bounce to $80,000 will continue to be sold.

Bitcoin

Price sits around $79,800 in a corridor between support at $79,800 and resistance at $80,300, with outer references at $79,000 below and $80,700 above. The plan is built around two mirror directions, each with breakout and rejection scenarios.

I'd consider buying in two cases. If price breaks above $80,300 and holds, I buy targeting $80,700, provided price stays above the 50?day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; I take profit at the target and consider a short on the retrace. If a break below $79,800 fails and price returns above, I buy the rejection targeting first $80,300 and then $80,700.

The sell strategy is symmetrical. If price breaks below $79,800 and holds, I open a short targeting $79,000, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above $80,300 fails and price returns lower, I sell the rejection targeting first $79,800 and then $79,000.

Ethereum

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin's on its own price scale. The corridor lies between support at $2,304 and resistance at $2,323, with outer references at $2,276 below and $2,338 above. I buy a confirmed break above $2,323 with a target of $2,338, provided price is above the 50?day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below $2,304 fails and price returns higher, I buy the rejection targeting first $2,323 and then $2,338.

I sell a confirmed break below $2,304 with a target of $2,276, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above $2,323 fails and price returns lower, I sell the rejection, targeting first $2,304 and then $2,276. Both indicators are filters to cut off false moves, not standalone reasons to enter early, and trades are taken only after price confirmation of the specified levels.