Macroeconomic reports review:

Very few macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Wednesday, and none of them are material. We see no reason to draw traders' attention to clearly secondary reports unlikely to move the pairs. Germany will publish a consumer-confidence index today, but it is not a major indicator. The market will focus on tonight's Federal Reserve decision.

Fundamental events analysis:

The key event today is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference after the FOMC decision. We do not expect Warsh to disclose specific plans for future meetings, but he may comment on inflation prospects. If he signals that inflation is higher than the Fed expected or rising faster than anticipated, that could hint at additional tightening next year and trigger further dollar strength — and the dollar already has reasons to rise.

The geopolitical backdrop remains worrying. The U.S. and Iran are not holding official talks at present, while Donald Trump continues to insist a deal could be signed—the question is when. Reports suggest the U.S. and Israel could resume strikes on Iran immediately after the midterms if no agreement is reached. We find that scenario more plausible than a ceasefire. Iran, for its part, is ready to resume strikes on U.S. allies in the region. In addition, mass unrest continues in many European countries, which does not bode well for the euro.

Key takeaways:

On the third trading day of the week, markets are likely to trade quietly until the Fed decision this evening. Expect major moves mainly during the U.S. session. Trade EUR/USD from the 1.1132–1.1140 area and GBP/USD from the 1.3319–1.3331 area.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, set a stop-loss to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.