Strategy reports Q3 results after the US close today, and the company faces scrutiny as Bitcoin is trading only about 6% above its average purchase price. The largest corporate holder owns 848,517 BTC at an average cost of $75,446. At roughly $80,000 per BTC, the inventory is worth about $68 billion versus $64 billion spent, leaving an unrealized gain of roughly $4 billion.

This marks a rough start to the fourth quarter. In Strategy's October 5 report, newly acquired coins were valued near $83,500 each. Since then, the BTC pullback has erased about $3 billion of mark?to?market gains on recent purchases, and two months remain in the quarter. Notably, the company benefited from a tax offset last quarter: in June, when BTC traded below cost, Strategy booked a tax loss of $4.12 billion; that write-off reversed in Q3 and boosted reported profit by roughly $4 billion. In October, the firm estimated a $4.1 billion tax benefit once fair value exceeded cost.

Pressure is coming from another quarter as well. US spot ETF buyers are broadly underwater — their average entry is roughly $81,500, about 2% above current prices. That lines up with the estimated remaining cost basis in IBIT of about 81,500. Recent buyers may sell into every bounce, making the 81,500 area a stiff resistance zone.

Most troubling in the update is that Strategy stopped buying Bitcoin in the week through October 25 and redirected funds to buy back its preferred shares (STRC). Previously, STRC buybacks totaled $193 million. CryptoQuant reckoned that Strategy accounted for roughly 71% of corporate increases in BTC balances in 2026, while other large corporates cut purchases by some 91%. When the single largest corporate buyer shifts capital to service its own obligations, the market loses its most visible support.

Against this background, I don't expect forced selling from Strategy in the coming weeks — the company still has a buffer. However, the quarter-end report will show whether Strategy prioritizes servicing preferred shares over accumulating more Bitcoin. If the tone is cautious, selling pressure on BTC will intensify. I see a likely move toward $79,000, and a break below $75,446 would put Strategy's tax position and reserves squarely at the center of market debate.

Technical analysis and recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers target a return to $81,700, which would extend the rally to $83,000 and then open the path toward $84,500. A break above that level would suggest attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect support and buying interest near $79,900. A break below that area could push BTC back toward $78,500, with a deeper target around $76,900.

Ethereum

Consolidation above $2,355 would open a direct path to $2,398. The next upside target is around $2,455. Clearing that would confirm a strengthening bullish tone and re-ignite buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected to step in near $2,305. A break below that level could drag ETH down to $2,231. The most distant downside target would be $2,184.

What's on the chart:

• Red: support and resistance zones where the price may slow or accelerate
• Green: 50-day moving average
• Blue: 100-day moving average
• Light green: 200-day moving average

Crosses of — or the price tests of — these moving averages typically either halt moves or set the next market impulse.