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11.10.2017 10:06 AM
The euro and the pound may have difficulties with further growth

The European currency continues to be in demand. Given the reduced tension around Catalonia, the demand for risky assets is gradually renewed, but much will depend on how the market reacts to the September Federal Reserve protocols that will be published today.

Today, it became known that the Catalan separatists did not accept the declaration of independence, which would immediately come into force, which allows continuing negotiations with Madrid. If the political crisis in Spain is resolved, then the demand for the European currency may continue and that will lead to the renewal of the weekly and monthly highs of the pair EUR/USD in the near future.

Yesterday's data, that the acceleration of global economic growth this year was stronger than predicted, also affected the quotations of risky assets. According to the report of the International Monetary Fund, the forecast for growth this year was raised to 3.6% and to 3.7% next year against the growth of 3.2% in 2016.

The statements by the representative of the Federal Reserve, Robert Kaplan, failed to support the US dollar. Kaplan noted that he is ready to discuss the rejection of monetary stimulus measures at future meetings, but it is still necessary to further monitor the progress towards achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target, which is one of the key factors that influence the committee's decision.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas also drew attention to the fact that the growth of the world economy was more rapid than expected, and the annual growth of the US GDP by 2.25% will improve the situation on the labor market, which will affect the decision of the Central Bank at the end of the year.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the further growth potential is limited by resistance level of 1.1830, the breakthrough of which will lead to the continuation of the upward trend in the trading instrument with the update of the monthly highs around 1.1860-1.1890 in the short term. Leaving below the support level of 1.1800 can negatively affect long positions in risky assets, which will return to the market buyers of the US dollar.

The Australian dollar reacted with growth to the data on the consumer confidence index of Australia, which in October this year has grown significantly. According to the Westpac report, the index rose to 101.4 points in October against 97.9 points in September this year. A good increase in employment is good for the confidence of Australian consumers.

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Jakub Novak,
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