GBP / USD

The British pound stayed in a downward trend amid the growing geopolitical tensions around Iran, North Korea and Ukraine. Investors also remain in the dark about the immediate plans of "Brexit" and wait for the next major economic data with a pessimistic forecasts. Today, the data on public sector borrowing in April will be publish, with a forecast of 7.2 billion pounds against -0.3 billion in March. The balance of production orders from CBI for the current month is expected to decrease from 4 to 2. The day will be parliamentary hearings on inflation. Usually, these hearings do not significantly affect the markets but now the situation is special, investors need to "remove the reaction" of the parliament to reduce inflation. Actually, inflation indices are coming out tomorrow and expected to be mixed. Base CPI in April is projected to 2.2% YoY vs. 2.3% YoY in March, while the overall CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5% YoY. The retail price index could rise from 3.3% YoY to 3.4% YoY.

We are expecting the pound to fall to 1.3330.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.