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25.10.2018 03:02 AM
EURUSD: Eurozone data suggests a possible slowdown in economic growth

Data released in the first half of the day on the composite index of supply managers of the eurozone, had a significant pressure on the euro, as they were worse than economists' forecasts, and also showed a slowdown in economic growth. Despite the fact that the data were preliminary, the pressure on the euro increased, which led to the renewal of the next monthly lows in tandem with the US dollar.

It all started with France and continued with a report on Germany.

According to the IHS Markit, the French business sentiment index dropped sharply to 104 points this October against 107 points in September. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged. The preliminary composite index of PMI supply managers in France in October was 54.3 points, whereas in September it was at the level of 54.0 points.

In Germany, according to IHS Markit, the preliminary composite PMI Purchasing Managers Index fell sharply to 52.7 points in October, while it was projected at 55.5. In September, the above index was at the level of 55.0 points.

The sharp decline in the indicator suggests that the expectations of German companies have decreased due to deteriorating prospects, which will affect the slowdown in the growth of the eurozone economy. The main problem is the deterioration of the situation on a global scale.

Export demand in the eurozone weakened, which was reflected in the general index of purchasing managers.

According to the company IHS Markit, the composite index of PMI supply managers in the eurozone in October fell to 52.7 points from 54.1 points in September. Let me remind you that the index value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to fall to 53.9 points.

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This report, especially preliminary, is unlikely to have an impact on tomorrow's decision of the European Central Bank, but it is a rather alarming signal that the region's economy is slowing down by the end of the year.

Lending to eurozone companies in September of this year increased by 4.3% compared with the same period last year, after rising by 4.1% in August. Household lending increased by 3.1%. This report was provided today by the European Central Bank.

The monetary aggregate M3 of the eurozone in September increased by 3.5%, which coincided with the forecast of economists.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bearish trend in the market remains, and the breakthrough of large support levels led to a new downward wave with the update of the month's lows in the area of 1.1400. Now sellers of risky assets are aiming for the support levels of 1.1350 and 1.1300.

Jakub Novak,
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