4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 68p - 99p - 114p - 94p - 75p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 90p (92p).

The British pound sterling broke through the important support zone of 1.2720 – 1.2700 during the first trading day of the week. In principle, this was quite expected, given the fact that each subsequent rebound from this zone was smaller than the previous one. Now the pound sterling can go into further free fall. Most importantly, there were no good reasons for the next fall of the British currency today. However, as we have repeatedly written, until the day of voting on the draft law of Theresa May in the British Parliament, the pound will continue to experience pressure. And if Parliament does not accept the terms of May, then after. Thus, the prospects for the pound are still not rosy at all. The Fed's refusal of the course to tighten monetary policy is the only thing that can save the British currency from new collapses, but if it happens, then no earlier than the middle of next year, or the adoption of the terms of Theresa May on Brexit. Today, the pound was not even safe even a weak report on the index of gradual acceleration of ISM inflation in the US, which frankly failed. In the current conditions, the British currency can only rely on technical corrections that occur from time to time. But even they have recently become smaller and smaller. From a technical point of view, the "dead cross" remains strong, and all indicators are directed downwards. The index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector also did not particularly support the pound. In general, the downward trend in the pair is maintained in the sense of the word.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement again. Thus, it is now recommended to consider short positions with the target of 1.2639, which has already been achieved, and in case of overcoming this level - with the target of 1.2639.

Long positions will become relevant not earlier than overcoming the Ichimoku cloud and the level of 1.2832. However, as before, we believe that this pound will require significant fundamental support.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.