4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 112p - 80p - 253p - 158p - 195p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 160p (146p).

The fourth trading day for the British pound began with some unexpected news. It turned out that the vote of no confidence, initiated by 48 politicians-members of the party of Theresa May, was not supported by the majority of party members. Thus, Theresa May remains the prime minister of the country and the leader of the Conservative party. Moreover, she receives annual immunity from her opponents. It is difficult to say whether this is good or bad for the pound sterling and the UK. Today the next EU summit will be held, in which Theresa May will discuss the issue of the North Irish border, its legal aspects. New negotiations between the parties are not expected. As for the vote in Parliament, Theresa May has very little time left this year. On December 20, the deputies will go on vacation, so most likely, the vote will take place next year. All this once again delays the entire process. And the best scenario for the pound is simply the absence of a new fall before the new voting date. No major macroeconomic publications are planned for the UK and the US today. From a technical point of view, the pair still overcame the Kijun-sen line, so the upward movement can continue to the pivot level. However, there is no "golden cross" at the moment, there is no fundamental support for further strengthening of the British currency either. Thus, until the New year, the pair may be in a non-bright sideways movement with a calm amplitude of trading.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains small growth prospects with targets of 1,2742 and 1,2827. However, as we have already said, we need data that will support the pound. There are not many of them now. Therefore, longs with the designated order is relevant only in small lots.

Short positions can be opened after reversing the pair below the critical line and turning the MACD indicator downwards. In this case, the probability of a resumption of the downtrend will increase, and the first target will be 1,2501.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.