Over the past trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 88 points. As a result, it continued to form a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a primary pullback from Fibo level 38.2 (1.3180), but the joy of the bulls was short. On Monday afternoon, the recovery process started, fixing lower than 1.3180 (Fibo 38.2). The news background had statistics on the construction sector in Britain, where we have a strong reduction from 50.6 to 49.5, which puts pressure on the pound. Information background traditionally had in itself the hype about Brexit. This time, the headlines of well-known publications are full of such statements - "Theresa May bribes Labor." What is this about? The British authorities announced the creation of a fund, in which these funds will go to support the weak regions. It is about 1.6 billion pounds. At the same time, as the British media say, this fund was created primarily to help the regions that voted for Brexit. Laborists have already called this plan an attempt to bribe opposition MPs. In their opinion, Theresa May is trying to enlist the support of the labor on the Brexit issue in this way. In turn, Labor MP and former Minister of Education, David Lammy, wrote in his Twitter account "Brexit-bribing is a measly bit compared to what the British regions receive from the EU. Mei Foundation - 1.6 billion for 6 years / 266 million per year. The European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund in 2014-2020. - 9.34 billion in 6 years / 1.56 billion per year. " At the same time, a statement was received from the Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, that said that they are ready to provide the UK with additional explanations and assurances in order to ensure the ratification of the Brexit agreement by the British Parliament.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data from the services sector in Britain, where we expect a decline from 50.1 to 49.9. In the afternoon, there will be a package of statistics from the United States regarding new home sales, where they are waiting for a decline from 657K to 600K.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation managed to break through the long-term Fibo level 38.2 (yellow on the chart), and comes close to the short-term Fibo level 38.2 (green on the chart) - 1.3130. It is probably assumed that the chatter is at 1.3130 / 1.3170, wherein, if the bearish interest persists, we will see a fixation lower than 1.3130, otherwise the stagnation at 1.3130 / 1.3170 may drag on until the end of the day.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of fixation higher than 1.3180, with a prospect to 1.3200-1.3240.
- Sell positions from the previous review were considered lower than 1.3200, with a primary perspective of 1.3180. Now, if we do not have positions, it is better to wait for a clear fixation lower than 1.3130.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there has been a downward interest against the background of the continuation of the corrective move in the short and intraday perspective . On the other hand, the medium-term perspective maintains a cyclical upward interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 30 points. In the case of maintaining the current mood in the quotes movement, the volatility of the day can be compressed within the daily average. Concentration on the information background is preserved.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
