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26.06.2019 08:50 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 26. Powell's "dovish" rhetoric tired the market

EUR/USD – 4H.

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and strengthened under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1367). Throughout yesterday, the euro was no longer in demand, although the most important event of the day, after which the mood of traders could change to the opposite, was scheduled for the evening. It was at this time that the Fed Chairman spoke at the economic forum and said that he feared for global economic growth and trade conflicts between the US and partners. As a result of these negative reasons, which cause downward risks, it may be necessary to reduce the key rate in order to maintain economic growth. However, Powell also noted that it is not necessary to respond to short-term changes in economic indicators, bearing in mind that the "numbers" can still improve without reducing the rate. Traders were ready for such a speech because Powell said about the same thing after the Fed meeting. The US dollar rose, the euro/dollar pair may continue the process of falling on June 26 in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% (1.1318).

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation below the correction level of 76.4%. Thus, I recommend selling the euro today with a target of 1.1318, a protective order above the Fibo level of 76.4%. I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair after the close of quotations above the level of 76.4% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1448 and a stop-loss order under 1.1367.

GBP/USD – 4H.

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After the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a return to the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2661). However, the pound sterling fell yesterday with much more pleasure than the EU currency. The English currency has also been much more difficult to grow in recent days and weeks. Still, the pound/dollar pair is inclined to fall due to the fact that Brexit froze in place and there is no progress forward. Just today, the pound may continue to fall if there is a successful attempt to close below the Fibo level of 76.4%, in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% (1.2437). The rebound of the pair on June 26 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% (1.2798). Mark Carney's speech can help traders to continue selling the English currency, as the Chairman of the Bank of England is unlikely to reassure the markets with "hawk" rhetoric. There are no grounds and reasons for this. According to Brexit, nothing can be said now, it is firmly "paused", the UK is electing a new prime minister, and until he is elected, there will be no progress in withdrawing from the European Union. And for the pound, any additional delay can result in a new fall.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

GBP/USD – 1H.

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair, also after the formation of bearish divergence at the MACD indicator, performed a turn in favor of the US dollar and fell to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2665). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the English currency and some growth in the direction of the correction levels of 76.4% and 100.0%. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the probability of continuing the fall in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% (1.2634).

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 7, 2019, and June 18, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair performed a fall towards the correction level of 61.8%. I recommend selling the pair with the targets at 1.2634 and 1.2603, with the stop-loss order above 1.2665, if the closing is performed under the level of 61.8% (hourly chart). I recommend buying the pair with targets at 1.2701 and 1.2762, if it will be rebounded from the Fibo level of 61.8% and with the stop-loss order of 1.2665 (hourly chart).

Samir Klishi,
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