4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 62p - 34p - 75p - 78p - 19p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 54p (56p).

The second trading day for the EUR/USD pair was in a downward movement, although no macroeconomic statistics were published today. The euro/dollar pair immediately fell to the second support level of 1.1150 on July 23. Thus, it is around 50 points to the annual lows. Overcoming the low of May 23 will remove the psychological barrier from traders that keeps them from large and long-term sales at the lowest price. In general, overcoming the level 1.1107 could turn even greater losses for the euro currency. As for the reasons for the euro's fall today, they are obvious: the results of the ECB meeting will be announced on Thursday, and traders fear that during the debriefing the reduction of the key interest rate in September and the restart of the quantitative easing program will be announced immediate easing of monetary policy. Needless to say, any "dovish" rhetoric by Mario Draghi or easing of monetary policy by the regulator is a negative factor for the currency, and a very strong one. Sometimes the foreign exchange market ignores such moments, but it happens infrequently. Now bears feel that the euro can be sold, since the Fed meeting, which can also announced a reduction on the key rate (immediate or scheduled), will be next week. One way or another, the euro will have chances for growth, and chances are not bad, but not this week.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is again recommended to sell the euro currency with targets at levels of 1.1150 and 1.1101 before the MACD indicator reverses to the top.

We recommend buying the euro/dollar pair not earlier than consolidating the price above the Kijun-sen line with the first target resistance level of 1.1269, but with minimal lots, since the bulls remain extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.