There is progress in the negotiations between the US and China, which is very pleasing since it is precisely the problems with trade policy that negatively affect the pace of world growth.
As it became known on Friday, after two days of negotiations, certain results were achieved. Donald Trump said that the countries have come to a very important phase in terms of reaching an agreement, and there was nothing larger than what is happening between the two countries. The American president noted a breakthrough in intellectual property, financial services and the purchase of agricultural products totaling $ 40-50 billion.
As for the painful topic of manipulating exchange rates, then Trump noted the progress in this issue, but other details were not disclosed. The negotiations with China will have 2 or 3 phases, and the first phase can be considered successful. The American leader said that the second phase will begin immediately after the first one will be issued in writing. The US will not implement the increase in duties on imports of goods from China, which was scheduled for this week, but as for the December duties, Trump has not yet made a final decision but has not canceled them. Huawei was not discussed during these talks.
The restrained reaction of the US dollar and gold to this news is understandable. But reports released on Friday on the state of the US economy supported the dollar.
According to the data, household sentiment in the United States improved in early October this year. According to a preliminary report by the University of Michigan, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in October this year was 96.0 points, which is 3.0% higher than the end of September at 93.2 points. Economists had expected the index to fall to 92.0 points.
The index of current conditions also increased, which in October amounted to 113.4 points, against the September level at 108.5 points.
The increase in import prices was also noted by traders, as it is good news for the Fed. According to the US Department of Labor, the price of imported goods in the United States in September of this year increased by 0.2% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected prices to remain unchanged. But compared to the same period of the previous year, prices fell by 1.6%.
On Friday, it also became known that the Federal Reserve will buy Treasury bonds until the 2nd quarter of 2020, and repo operations will continue until January 2020 inclusive. This was done to increase the volume of reserves and reduce the risk of pressure in terms of lack of liquidity. This may also indicate that the committee is not yet going to renew the stimulus program, which is positive news for the US dollar.
The Fed will also buy $60 billion in Treasury bills each month, starting in mid-October through mid-November 2019, and offer at least $35 billion through repo operations twice a week.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is best to return to long positions in the trading instrument only after updating the major support of 1.1000, or after fixing above the middle of the side channel of 1.1035. Only then can we expect a second wave of growth of risky assets to the highs of 1.1065 and 1.1110. However, the volatility will be quite low today, as in the US all markets will be closed in connection with the celebration of Columbus Day.
GBPUSD
The British pound will continue to be in demand, but further growth depends on the results of the report of the European Commission, which will study today's discussions with EU member states and the European Parliament, which may lead to increased negotiations with the UK in the next days. Let me remind you that we are talking about a solution concerning Ireland, which should exclude a hard border, support the peace process and protect the single market.
Meanwhile, the growth of the pound is limited by the resistance of 1.2700, and larger buyers are waiting for a downward correction in the support area of 1.2560 and 1.2520, from where you can look at long positions in the trading instrument.
