4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: -43.3981

Following the results of yesterday's vote in Parliament, the situation with Brexit did not move a centimeter from the dead center. At first, Boris Johnson's face reflected a small hope that Parliament had changed its mind when the deputies supported the general principles of the bill on the terms of the country's exit from the EU – the same "deal" that Johnson negotiated with Brussels. However, a little later, the Parliament refused to consider it completely within three days, as Johnson demanded to be able to leave the European Union by October 31. According to the laws of Great Britain, consideration of such multi-page bills can take from 21 days. Thus, Brexit will not be implemented with an almost 100% probability until October 31. All that remains is the formality in the form of the official consent of the European Union to provide another deferment. Johnson himself expressed this point of view: it is necessary to wait for the decision of the European Union, and the consideration of its "deal" in Parliament is put on pause. We once again draw the attention of traders to the fact that almost all the votes taking place on the "Brexit case" end with an advantage of one of the parties in 10-20 votes. Formally – this is the opinion of the majority, in fact – opinions were divided in the ratio of almost 50/50. Yesterday, the first vote ended with a score of 329-299, the second – 322-308.

Now Boris Johnson will do his utmost to realize the idea of early parliamentary elections, as he has finally made sure that the current composition will not support him in any issue. However, how is Johnson going to implement this idea, if the same Parliament has twice refused to hold early elections? Moreover, absolutely everyone understands Johnson's game, and what he seeks. It is unlikely that the opposition will simply take and agree to early elections. Moreover, the question of holding a second referendum, which the Laborites may initiate, is becoming ever more acute. In fact, we believe that this is even the best solution to the problem, since it is the people who initiated Brexit itself, will decide whether they are ready to spend a few more years in limbo, and then "rise from his knees" for 5-10 years, especially if Boris Johnson finds a way to withdraw the Kingdom on the "hard" scenario? But what if in the second referendum the votes are again divided in the ratio of 48%-52%? Do not forget about Scotland, which seems to be just waiting for the right moment and occasion to hold its referendum on independence. This has been repeatedly stated by Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, as her country did not support the UK's exit from the EU and would like to remain in it. Thus, potentially the British Kingdom could lose Scotland, as well as suffer a huge blow from Brexit itself. In the context of such prospects, the pound does not expect anything good. But as long as the "hard" Brexit moves away from the immediate future, the British currency may grow.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to be adjusted. Thus, traders are advised to wait for the price rebound from the moving average line or the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator-up, and then resume buying the pound with the targets of 1.2939 and 1.3062. A fixation under the moving average will change the current trend to a downward one.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.