Macroeconomic statistics reflect the real situation in the economy and does it determine the mood of investors? Does technical analysis explain the intentions of traders and explain what is happening? I think not. Only the media can control the minds and hearts of people. Moreover, they have already worked out all the techniques of information manipulation for a long time and are capable of presenting local clashes with the police in several cities of a huge country so that what is happening in the United States will seem not street protests, but a full-fledged civil war. On the other hand, there is no use of pointing a finger to the UK statistics, which, they say, perfectly explain the growth of the pound. Firstly, this does not explain the growth of the single European currency. Secondly, the pound began to rise even before the release of statistics. Its growth, as well as the growth of the single European currency, ideally coincided with reports that four St. Louis police officers were hospitalized with bullet wounds. That is, everyone was informed that now not only the police are shooting, but also the protesters. This means that the overall level of violence has reached a new level. Now, not only property is burned, but they can also be killed. And already in the late afternoon, these shocking news were consolidated by summing up a sad intermediate result. According to various estimates, at least eleven people died in the riots and clashes with the police. Therefore, the media carefully presents everything as if the United States is really, if not a civil war, then its advertising campaign. And it is quite obvious that investors, and indeed all those who have enough money, will try to take the hard-earned money to a place where at least instead of burning cars and shops, the streets are lit by lanterns.

Moreover, macroeconomic statistics in the UK rather contributed to the weakening of the pound, which is somehow strange. After all, the volume of consumer lending declined by 7.4 billion pounds. here, the previous decline of 4.2 billion pounds was already an absolute record, but it turned out that this is not the limit. In any case, no one in the United Kingdom has ever seen such a large-scale fall in the credit market for at least the past thirty years. In addition, the number of approved mortgage loans was only 15.8 thousand. And yes, this is the new absolute minimum. So the current economic crisis continues to surprise us with new and new depths into which the world economy can fall and if there were no mass riots in the United States, the pound would just continue to steadily go down.

Mortgages Approved (UK):

So, it is obvious that until the situation on the streets of American cities is normalized, the tendency to weaken the dollar will continue. In addition, no one will pay attention to macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, it will be clearly multi-directional in Europe today. On the one hand, the index of business activity in the services sector should grow from 12.0 to 28.7. In combination with the recent growth of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, this should lead to an increase in the composite index of business activity from 13.6 to 30.5. There is nothing surprising in the growth itself, since the decline was caused by the introduction of many restrictive measures and the closure of a huge number of restaurants, shops and so on. Now, restrictive measures are gradually being lifted, and the business can slowly resume its activities. And this, you see, cannot but please entrepreneurs. Here is the business activity index and is growing. But along with this, the unemployment rate may rise from 7.4% to 8.1%, which means that there will not be so many visitors to all these opening bars and shops. So the situation is not so clear. Moreover, the pace of decline in producer prices should accelerate from -2.8% to -3.2%, which increases the risks of Europe slipping into full deflation. But a meeting of the board of the European Central Bank will take place tomorrow, and a drop in prices could force Christine Lagarde to expand stimulus measures, for example, by increasing the volume of quantitative easing.

Unemployment Rate (Europe):

Rapid growth of business indices is expected in the United Kingdom. Moreover, for exactly the same reasons as on the other side of the English Channel. So, the index of business activity in the service sector should grow from 13.4 to 27.8. If we add the recent growth of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, then all this should give an increase in the composite index of business activity from 13.8 to 28.9. So an exceptionally favorable macroeconomic background is expected in the UK. Although the most important thing is that, unlike the former colony, no one shoots or sets fire to cars with shops on Foggy Albion.

Composite Business Activity Index (UK):

But do not think that the United States now lives only by protests and street fights. All these outrages do not occur in every corner of the country. Most cities continue to lead a quiet, measured life. And the restrictions previously introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic are also gradually being lifted. So, as in the Old World, business is starting to look to the future with optimism. All this should lead to an increase in the index of business activity in the services sector from 26.7 to 36.9. Now, we add here the recent growth of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and we get the growth of the composite index of business activity from 27.0 to 36.4. But honestly, this is where the good news ends. So, ADP data should show a decline in employment by another 9,600 thousand. This, of course, is not 20,236 thousand in the previous month, but it's still very, very much. Moreover, unemployment continues to rise. In fact, ADP data tells us that over the past two months, more than ten percent of all able-bodied people in the United States have lost their jobs. That is, even in the mildest version, this means that every tenth is left unemployed. In fact, even more. Thus, in many respects, this explains the mass protests, as people see around themselves not the most favorable social situation. Moreover, many have no source of livelihood, so anyone will go out to smash everything in their path. In addition, the volume of factory orders may be reduced by another 16.0% which, incidentally, should be a record decline in factory orders. But it declined as much as 10.3% in the previous month. And if to be completely careful, then orders have been reduced for three months in a row. Today's data may show that this process has been going on for the fourth month in a row. And if there are no orders, then there is no production, which means there is no work. Vicious cycle.

Factory Orders (United States):

However, at this point in time, everything will depend on the level of protest activity in the United States. Generally few people are now interested in statistics. So it is most likely that the single European will continue to grow, and the level of 1.1150 does not seem so fantastic.

It is clear that the pound is now living exactly according to the same laws, and it is likely to try to return to the level of 1.2625.