GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3264). The rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall. However, the upward trend corridor still retains the "bullish" mood of traders. And fixing the pair's rate above the level of 127.2% will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3375). Meanwhile, the Brexit saga continues. Negotiations on the trade agreement resumed on Sunday in Brussels, and according to insider information, the parties will try to conclude a deal this week. However, most experts and analysts are skeptical about this. In their opinion, there is still little chance of reaching an agreement, as serious differences remain on key issues between London and Brussels. However, it is not reported what those differences are and how serious they are. Thus, the British pound continues to maintain an upward mood, however, its future depends on the trade agreement between the UK and the European Union. Optimism can quickly turn to pessimism as soon as traders realize that Michel Barnier and David Frost failed to reach an agreement. And the British in this case can start a prolonged fall. Thus, it is still too early to conclude. We still need to wait for official statements from London or Brussels.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the British, and a new consolidation above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3191). Thus, the growth process can be continued towards the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3481). There are no emerging divergences today. Closing the pair below the corrective level of 23.6% will work in favor of the US currency and allow traders to count on a slight drop in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3010).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). However, when trading a pair, I recommend paying more attention to the most lower charts. They are now more informative.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pair GBP/USD has performed a new close above the upper descending trend line, however, it was followed by a false breakout of this line. In recent weeks, the pair has made new attempts to gain a foothold over both trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey spoke at the TheCityUK conference in the UK on Tuesday, however, traders did not pay attention to this event.
Us and UK news calendar:
UK - consumer price index (07:00 GMT).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (16:30 GMT).
A new speech by the Governor of the Bank of England will take place on November 18, and the UK consumer price index for October will be released. An economic report may be of interest to traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bearish" during the reporting week. Speculators this time opened 1.4 thousand long-contracts, but at the same time increased 6.4 thousand short-contracts. The British pound as a whole has continued to grow in recent weeks despite COT reports. However, the latest COT report suggests that the British currency is about to fall. I also note an almost equal number of open long and short contracts for all categories of traders and a fairly small total number of contracts in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category. This means that speculators are not eager to deal with the pound right now.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with targets of 1.3176 and 1.3099 if the closing is performed under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the pair if the quotes consolidate above the level of 127.2% (1.3264) on the hourly chart with the goal of 1.3375.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
