Analysis of previous deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD pair continued to trade very calmly on Wednesday. Unlike the pound/dollar pair, which has been trading within an upward trend for several weeks. The European currency paired with the dollar mostly stands in one place. We have already said that the pair spent a week inside the horizontal channel, left it and immediately found themselves in the next horizontal channel. No matter how you look at the situation, there is no trend now, so trading is still very inconvenient, and we do not recommend considering signals from the MACD indicator. The European Union even published a rather important macroeconomic report on inflation. Its very meaning was not impressive. In September, the consumer price index was 3.4% y/y, which is exactly in line with the analysts' forecast. Thus, the markets, by and large, had nothing to react to.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

The technical picture is also very eloquent on the 5-minute timeframe. Sideways movement is clearly visible, and today's volatility is less than 40 points. Thus, it was very difficult to count on scattered strong trading signals and high profits. By and large, only 2 trading signals were formed during the day. Both are near the level of 1.1639. The 1.1617 level is the low for today, so we do not take it into account. The first sell signal was generated when the price settled below the level of 1.1639 and the price then went down exactly 14 points. That is, one point was not enough to set Stop Loss to breakeven. Subsequently, the price began to move upward (within the horizontal channel) and broke the level of 1.1639 from the bottom up, forming a buy signal. Thus, a short position was closed at a loss of about 10 points, and a long position was opened instead. With a long position, it turned out a little luckier, although the strength of the upward movement also left much to be desired. After the formation of this signal, the price was able to go up another 10 points. It was at this profit level that it was possible to close this deal in the late afternoon, since there were no other signals to exit it anyway. As a result, by the end of the day, novice traders received neither profit nor loss.

How to trade on Thursday:

The flat was canceled on the 30-minute timeframe, but the upward trend is still not formed, and the volatility still does not exceed 40-50 points per day (in most cases). Thus, it is still very inconvenient to trade on the 30-minute TF, and we still do not recommend tracking signals from the MACD indicator. The key levels on the 5-minute timeframe for October 21 are 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666 and 1.1685. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. On Thursday, neither the European Union nor the United States will publish a single macroeconomic report and not a single important fundamental event is planned. Thus, with a high degree of probability, a weak movement in the side channel will remain.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.