Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD rate has been seen moving up towards the weekly high seen at the level of 1.0595, so the bulls are not that far away from the projected target located at 161% Fibonacci extension at 1.0623. Moreover, the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the last big wave down is seen at 1.0610 and can be tested soon as well (a breakout with a new swing high is needed anyway). The intraday technical support is seen at 1.0550. The strong and positive momentum supports the short term bullish outlook for EUR on the H4 time frame chart. The bulls still need to complete the wave v of the wave A to the upside as a part of the ABC-X-ABC complex corrective structure.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.06535

WR2 - 1.06078

WR1 - 1.05855

Weekly Pivot - 1.05621

WS1 - 1.05398

WS2 - 1.05164

WS3 - 1.04707

Trading Outlook:

The EUR had made a new multi-decade low at the level of 0.9538, so as long as the USD is being bought all across the board, the down trend will continue towards the new lows. In the mid-term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0389 and only if this level is clearly violated, the down trend might be considered terminated. Please notice, there is plenty of room to the downside for the EUR to go, all of the potential technical support level are very old and might not be much reliable anymore.

Please be aware, that any sustained breakout below the technical support seen at 0.9737 will extend the down move even more and will put the level of 0.9669 in view. In the longer term, the key technical resistance level is located at 1.0789 (swing high from May 30th), so the bulls still have a long road to take before the down trend reversal is confirmed. It looks like the simple corrective ABC cycle might evolve into more complex and time consuming ABC-X-ABC cycle.