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21.09.2023 08:48 AM
Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on September 21

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading USD/JPY

Further growth became limited because the first test of 148.06 coincided with the sharp rise of the MACD line from zero. The second test, on the other hand, prompted a sell signal, which resulted in a price decrease of around 20 pips.

The increased talk about the Bank of Japan's growing dissatisfaction with the current exchange rate and volatility of yen slightly cooled demand yesterday. However, the decision of the Federal Reserve and the forecasts published later led to another surge and an update of monthly highs. As for today, the direction could be influenced by data on US jobless claims and home sales in the secondary market, where strong indicators will further weaken the position of yen. Of course, be cautious of possible central bank interventions.

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For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 148.41 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 148.95. Growth will occur as long as the market remains bullish, but be cautious about buying at current highs. And when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or just starts to rise from it.

Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 148.05, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 148.41 and 148.95.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 148.05 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 147.40. Pressure will return in the event of intervention by the Bank of Japan. However, when selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.

Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 148.41, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 148.05 and 147.40.

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What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
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