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02.10.2023 09:03 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on October 2

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

The test of 1.0595, coinciding with the decline of the MACD line from zero, prompted a sell signal that led to a price decrease of around 20 pips.

Better-than-expected inflation data for the eurozone helped euro on Friday morning, but the report on US price pressure reduced risk appetite, leading to sell-offs. Today, much will depend on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector, where poor figures and further reduction in activity will result in another decrease in the pair. The unemployment rate in August may remain unchanged, but if the data exceeds expectations, euro will regain some positions, increasing the chances of an upward correction.

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For long positions:

Buy when euro hits 1.0595 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0643. Growth may occur as part of an upward correction, following news of manufacturing activity growth in the eurozone. However, poor data could dampen all buying enthusiasm.

Note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or rising from it. Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0560, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0595 and 1.0643.

For short positions:

Sell when euro reaches 1.0560 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0520. Pressure may return at any moment, especially in the case of weak eurozone data.

Note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or dropping down from it. Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0595, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0560 and 1.0520.

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What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
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