27.02.2024 05:11 PM
GBP/USD. Analysis for February 28th. The pound continues to stand in one place

For the GBP/USD pair, wave analysis remains relatively clear and, at the same time, complex. The construction of a new downward trend section continues, the first wave of which has taken on a very elongated form. The second wave has also turned out to be quite extensive, giving us every reason to expect the prolonged formation of the third wave.

At the moment, I am not entirely confident that the construction of wave 2 or b is complete. The retreat of quotes from the reached peaks is too small to consider it a guaranteed start of wave 3 or c. Wave 2 or b has already taken on a five-wave appearance, but it remains corrective and should be completed soon (or is already completed). Nevertheless, we continue to observe the construction of new internal waves that are currently very difficult to attribute to any specific wave of a higher scale.

Targets for reducing the pair within the presumed wave 3 or c are located below the level of 1.2039, corresponding to the low of wave 1 or a. Unfortunately, wave analysis tends to be complicated and does not correspond to the news background. At the moment, I do not abandon the working scenario, but it is necessary to continue waiting for when the market will be ready to sell the British pound.

The market finds no reason to sell

The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair did not change on Tuesday. The American session opened recently, but even with its opening, nothing has changed. At the beginning of the session, a report on orders for durable goods was released, which disappointed even the most ardent pessimists, showing a much greater decline in volumes than expected. However, the demand for the dollar did not decrease (for which there were all the necessary reasons) but also did not increase (for which there were no reasons). The market continues to stand still, and I can only state this fact.

During the current week, there will be very few reasons for the market to trade more actively. The news background will be quite strong in the second half of the week in the European Union (inflation reports), but in the UK and the US, there will be few important reports. Based on this, I expect that sluggish movements will be observed at least until the end of this week. And if you consider how much time the pound has been between the Fibonacci levels of 50.0% and 23.6%, then it is unlikely to assume the completion of the sideways movement this week. Perhaps the market has decided to postpone active actions until after the March meetings of the Bank of England, the ECB, and the Fed. At the second meeting this year, the likelihood of a rate cut in all three cases is extremely small. Therefore, I really don't understand what exactly market participants are waiting for.

General conclusions:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am considering selling the pair with targets located below the level of 1.2039 because wave 2 or b cannot last forever, just like the sideways movement. A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2627 became a signal for sales. However, at the moment, I can also highlight a new sideways movement with a lower boundary at the level of 1.2500. This level is currently the limit for me in the decline of the British pound. Wave 3 or c of the downward trend section still does not start.

On a larger wave scale, the picture is similar to the EUR/USD pair, but there are still some differences. The descending corrective trend section continues its construction, and its second wave has taken on an elongated form – at 61.8% from the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level may lead to the start of building 3 or c.

Chin Zhao,
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