Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range after hitting its six-week high of 103.77 at Friday. It is undermined by selling of the yen crosses amid reduced risk appetite after surprise 18.1% on-year plunge in China's February exports (versus forecast +5.0% increase), leaving a trade deficit of $22.98 billion for February and heightening fears of slowdown in the world's second largest economy, fall in China's CPI to +2.0% on-year in February (in line with forecast) from +2.5% in January, China's solar-equipment maker Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology's failure to meet an interest payment on a bond Friday, becoming the country's first domestic corporate-bond default and lingering concerns over the situation in Ukraine as the Moscow-backed authorities in Crimea pushed their plan to become part of Russia. USD/JPY are also weighed by the Japan exporter sales and wider-than-expected U.S. January trade deficit of $39.1 billion (versus forecast deficit of $38.4 billion). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers, loose BOJ's monetary policy, higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year reached 2.821% Friday, it highest since Jan. 23) and positive U.S. dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.69 versus 79.64 early Friday) as U.S. non-farm payrolls rose larger-than-expected to 175,000 in February (versus +152,000 forecast), while January payroll growth was revised up to 129,000 from an original estimate of 113,000 - bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its bond buying by another $10 billion to $55 billion in its policy meeting on March 19. The U.S. unemployment rate rose unexpectedly rose to 6.7% from January's 6.6% (versus forecast of a decline to 6.5%), but that was driven by a 264,000 increase in the size of the workforce.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish,five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.7 and the second target at 104.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.60. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.30. The pivot point is at 102.80.

Resistance levels:
103.7
104.05
104.4

Support levels:
102.6
102.30
102.05