Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting its seven-day low at 101.54 on Thursday. It is undermined by the flows to safe-haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge surged 12.09% to 16.22, S&P tumbled 1.17% overnight) as the intensifying crisis in Ukraine and further signs of weakness in China's economy outweighed positive U.S. data. Geopolitical fears are mounting in the run-up to Sunday's referendum in Crimea on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia. The U.S. and other western nations have warned Moscow that such annexation could have grave international consequences. Meanwhile, China retail sales rose weaker-than-expected 11.8% on year in February (versus +13.5% forecast), while industrial output rose 8.6% on year (versus +9.5% forecast), overshadowing a bigger-than-expected 9,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims in the week ended March 8 to 315,000 (versus 330,000 forecast) and stronger-than-expected 0.3% on month increase in the U.S. February retail sales (versus +0.2% forecast). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan's exports sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment on upbeat jobless claims and retails sales data, demand from the Japanese importers and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought zone, positive MACD histogram bars are contracting, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hited on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.10. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 100.65. The pivot point stands at 102.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.40 and the second target at 102.80.

Resistance levels:
102.40
102.80
103.15

Support levels:
101.10
100.65
100.35