Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the weaker yen sentiment ahead of Japan's national sales tax increase to 8% from 5% on April 1; yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 1.44% to 14.41; S&P rose 0.46% Friday) as speculation mounts that policymakers in China would take stimulus steps to boost the economy after China's Premier Li Keqiang said the country's economic growth should be maintained at a "reasonable pace." USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and higher U.S. Treasury yields; positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.19 versus 80.13 early Friday after stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase in U.S. February personal income (versus +0.2% forecast), a 0.3% increase in personal spending in February and a 1.1% rise in PCE price index on a yearly basis in February. That shows that the U.S. economy may be thawing out after a cold, snowy winter across the country. But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exports.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Friday, five-day moving average was rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.45 and the second target at 103.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.40. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.90. The pivot point is at 102.60.

Resistance levels:
103.45
103.75
104

Support levels:
102.40
101.90
101.35