Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.15 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

The pair is gradually approaching the psychological level of 160 yen, from which the Bank of Japan has actively intervened in recent months. Therefore, it is not surprising that there are relatively few buyers at current prices.

In the second half of the day, U.S. consumer confidence data and housing price dynamics are expected. However, the main focus will most likely remain on the Middle East situation. Geopolitical factors act as a key driver of global economic trends, prompting investors to reassess portfolios and seek safety in reliable assets. This directly concerns the yen, which is sensitive to energy import costs.

As for the data, U.S. consumer confidence, as an indicator of domestic demand, is important for assessing the state of the American economy. However, under current conditions, no particularly positive outcome is expected. Strong figures could support the dollar, but their impact is likely to be limited in the context of overall global instability.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point at around 159.21 is reached (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.52 (thicker green line on the chart). At 159.52, I will exit buy positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Upward potential today may materialize only on negative news regarding the agreement.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.05 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. In this case, a move toward 159.21 and 159.52 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.05 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.75, where I will exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return today if peace is achieved.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun falling from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.21 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.05 and 158.75 can then be expected.

What Is on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manually locking in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manually locking in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: a successful trading approach requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is, from the outset, a losing intraday trading strategy.