Oil prices eased slightly today after a steady rise, directly linked to the lack of progress in US–Iran talks.

Brent crossed $107/barrel after a modest pullback in the previous session, while WTI trades around $93. Iranian officials privately expressed deep pessimism yesterday about the prospects of a ceasefire deal with Washington and a reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz before the US midterm elections in November. That mood intensified after US President Donald Trump rejected a proposal to fully restore navigation through the strait within seven days.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has restored only about half the throughput on its transnational East-West pipeline — the vital artery that bypasses Hormuz — after drone strikes earlier this month halted operations. According to various sources, flows to the Red Sea have already reached at least 3.5 million barrels per day.

Although geopolitical risks remain enormous, the market has learned a simple truth: oil supplies usually find a way to reach consumers. Right now we do not see a sustained price rally that would be inevitable if traders were seriously fearful of an imminent and material disruption to physical supply.

It is clear that, for September overall, oil prices will rise for the third consecutive month amid escalating US–Iran tensions, outages on Saudi bypass routes and potential US limits on diesel exports. Since the start of the year, Brent is up more than 70% against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict that has persisted for over seven months.

The spread between nearby Brent contracts has widened to more than $7/barrel, whereas it was under $1 at the end of last month. This configuration — so-called backwardation — is a classic sign of a tight market. In Europe, fixed-price Brent, the main benchmark for the physical market, is also trading at a significant premium to futures.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $96 to target $100, beyond which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is $104. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $92; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Oil down to $89, with the prospect of reaching $87.