As we predicted yesterday, the spot rate bounced off to the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5680 and approaches now the upper limit of this one at 1.5770 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a more violent bullish trend.
Technical indicators provide buy signals but are approaching overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, the spot rate is breaking the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement to the upper limit of its channel.
The spot rate tests its resistance that is why we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we suggest a sell at the level of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5710 and then at 1.5690. A breakthrough 1.5790 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we recommend a “buy stop”. We advised to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5770 with the 1st objective at 1.5830 and then at 1.5850. A breakthrough 1.5750 will invalidate this scenario.