The spot rate approaches the upper limit of its medium-term trading range at 101.00 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and initiate a violent bullish channel.
Technical indicators do not provide sell signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. The spot rate evolves into the levels of the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.
The spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its trading range, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend a sell on the level of 101.00 with the 1st objective at 100.40 and then at 100.20. A breakthrough of 101.20 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. It means to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 101.00 with the 1st objective at 101.60 and then at 101.80. A breakthrough of 100.80 will invalidate this scenario.