AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 5 (coloured blue). During the Friday's Asian and early European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0247 toward the 1.0289 level. Therefore, during the late European and New York sessions the AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new low at 1.0216 level. At the moment this currency pair is trading around 1.0235 level and we are expecting to see price lower in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0004 (161.8 of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0293 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD Home Loans m/m, New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m, U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, and FOMC Member Lacker Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0172 (S2) 1.0200 (S1) 1.0217 (PP) 1.0245 (R1) 1.0273 (R2) 1.0290 (R3) 1.0318
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0220 with Stop Loss 1.0293 and Take Profit at 1.0004 are recommended.