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24.10.2012 06:04 PM
Fundamental Analysis For October 24, 2012

 

 

The next meaningful event for monetary policy is not the announcements by Fed, but the president election in U.S. two weeks later.
European shares recover after sharp falls which took place on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 24.64 points to 13,127.17.
But let's go in chronological order what has already happened and may happen later. In Germany IFO Business Climate index is already known. It showed a decline to 100 points, lower than expected. Amid the data the euro reached its minimum of 1.2919 against the dollar, then a slight recovery started.
Also in Germany both the PMI manufacturing and services appeared well below expectations, showing that the strength of the European economic locomotive also begins to stumble; it is not good for the rest of the eurozone.
New Home Sales in the United States data are released. Purchases of new homes rose in September to the highest level in more than two years.
The Fed's announcement, scheduled for 2:15 PM Eastern. Ben S. Bernanke, a current chairman, may announce QE3 which includes injecting the economic circuit of about 40 billion dollars a month could stretch to the end of his term. It runs through early 2014.
However, Tuesday's low reflects a climate of uncertainty. Employment data is far from ideal but much better than analysts expected. Some believe that it was manipulation in favor of the Obama administration, in terms of his reelection next month.
So this afternoon could give investors confidence, if Bernanke and his people are able to convince themselves that their stimulus plans are actually working.
The chart of the dollar against major currencies shows a moderate probability that the dollar suffered a setback today of medium intensity, so the euro could exceed 1.30 with relative ease, while the pound regains its upward pace 1.6080.

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