Today's Support and Resistance Levels: 

S1: 102.95                    R1: 103.39

S2: 102.58                    R2: 103.59

S3: 102.22                    R3: 103.92

Technical Overview:

The big question for today is whether red wave iii down have already begun or red wave ii is still unfolding? We prefer the scenario where red wave iii is already in motion slightly over the other scenario. The key to our scenario is resistance at 103.39. As long as this resistance protects the upside we should see a new decline below 102.17 for a continuation towards 101.45. However, if resistance at 103.39 is broken, that would indicate that red wave ii is still unfolding and we must accept a move a little higher towards 103.59 and maybe even 103.92 before the next downside pressure begins. As we said yesterday, it would take a break above 104.42 to invalidate our bearish count and a call for a new high above 104.59.

Trading Recommendation:

You should be short EUR from 104.50 with a stop at break-even. If you are not short EUR already, then sell a break below 102.60 with a stop at 103.50.