Today, as over the past few trading sessions, the key factor determining further dynamics in the financial markets is the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting. Both the regulator’s decision on interest rates and comments on its further policy steps are in the focus of market participants.
If Jerome Powell once again excludes possible interest rate cuts this year, the US currency will most likely edge higher in the long term. This in turn will lead to a decline in all other financial instruments, including commodity assets. The likelihood of this happening is pretty high. After all, the head of the Fed said the same thing following the previous board meeting. If there are no hawkish comments, this will signal an early start of monetary policy easing. In this case, the dollar will come under strong pressure.
Under such conditions, oil will have every chance of rising above $90 per barrel.
In the meantime, Brent crude oil futures are pulling back from a two-week low. Despite oversold conditions, the downtrend remains intact. However, things can change if the price breaks above 87.50. In this case, the asset is expected to hit a new local high of the ascending cycle. Alternatively, the volume of short positions will increase further if the price returns below the 84 mark.
Speaking of gold, the situation is similar. The only difference is that its reaction to the Fed’s meeting is likely to be more pronounced. After all, gold is a safe-haven asset. This makes it more vulnerable to changes in interest rate levels which reflect government bond yields. So Powell’s speech can either lead to a sharp drop in gold prices below $1,900 per ounce, followed by a steady move towards $1,800 per ounce, or drive the metal up to $2,000 per ounce, or even above.
In this situation, if the quote rises and consolidates above the level of 1,935, gold will most likely gain strong upside momentum and may even hit a new local high.
Unlike many other instruments that have shown sufficient trading activity in recent days, the ruble is clearly stabilizing around 70 rubles per dollar. The volume of long positions decreased slightly near 70.85, which resulted in a pullback. Nevertheless, the dollar/ruble pair held steady above 70. If the price consolidates above this mark, the greenback will gain value.
An alternative scenario will be relevant in case the price returns below 69 on the daily chart.
The ruble is heavily dependent on political factors that are expected to adjust its reaction to the outcome of the Fed’s meeting. In addition, the reaction itself will be short-lived. Political events, in particular the sanctions regime, are far more important for the Russian currency. To the surprise of Western countries, a wall of sanctions has not yet led to a collapse of the Russian economy.
Even the International Monetary Fund has recently acknowledged that the Russian economy is likely to see a small expansion this year. Furthermore, no fresh tough sanctions are foreseen. Thus, the ruble has solid upside potential in the long run.
Of course, if Jerome Powell excludes possible rate reductions, the ruble may slide today, or rather tomorrow. But a downtrend will not last long. If the US central bank signals the need to start easing monetary policy, the dollar will immediately dip to the 68 mark.
That’s all for now. We wish you profitable deals. See you on our channel with a new video in a couple of hours!

00:00 Introduction
00:25 Market developments depending on Powell's statements
01:00 Brent
01:36 Gold
02:29 USD/RUB
03:07 What the ruble exchange rate depends on
03:33 Sanctions, the IMF and Russia's growth outlook
03:51 Powell and the Ruble
04:11 Conclusion

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