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29.05.2023: US debt ceiling deal inspires Wall Street.
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2023-09-18 18:14 UTC+3
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2023-09-12 19:09 UTC+3
12.09.2023: Markets anticipate key reports. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
2023-09-12 17:32 UTC+3
12.09.2023: Oil market awaits US data. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
2023-09-12 17:13 UTC+3
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Forex forecast 09/12/2023 on EUR/USD, GOLD, Crude Oil and Bitcoin from Petar Jacimovic
2023-09-12 11:36 UTC+3
11.09.2023: Wall Street poised to open new week with gains (S&P500, USD, CAD, Bitcoin)
2023-09-11 20:42 UTC+3
Wall Street welcomed the long-awaited agreement on the US federal debt ceiling, but the market gave a muted response because US trading floors are closed on the public holiday, Memorial Day. Thus, investors are taking a breather, revising their risks and portfolios. The market is braced for another turbulent week with the focus of the crucial nonfarm payrolls.On Friday, the Dow Jones climbed by 1%. The Nasdaq gained an impressive 2.19%. The S&P 500 grew by 1.30% to close at 4,205.
The futures market is thin because of the national holidays in the UK and the US. The benchmark stock indices are still trading higher. The S&P 500 is expected to trade in the intraday corridor between 4,200 and 4,240.
Even though US lawmakers did not settle a deal, the evidence of progress in the talks encouraged a rally on Wall Street.
Optimism about the US public debt outweighed the PCE price index released on Friday. The report indicated that inflation accelerated in the US. Another market catalyst was the growth of shares related to artificial intelligence.
Nvidia Shares rose by 2.5% after a 24% jump on Thursday, lifting the company's market value to around 960 billion dollars. Marvell Technology shares leapt by 32% after the chip maker said it would double its annual earnings.
In addition, in the corporate segment, Paramount Global shares increased by 5.9% after receiving a 125 million-dollar investment.
From 11 sectors included in the S&P 500, 8 sectors went up with the high-tech sector taking the lead. The S&P 500 grew by 0.3% for the last week. The Dow Jones slipped by 1.0%. The Nasdaq jumped by 2.5%.
The stock market is opening a new week with relief because the preliminary deal on lifting the debt limit was reached.
An agreement to lift the 31.4 trillion-dollar debt cap was reached late on Saturday. The deal puts the debt ceiling on hold until January 2025 in exchange for spending cuts and reducing government programs.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government will default if Congress does not raise the national debt ceiling by June 5. So, despite the optimism, the market has a new X date. So, anxiety has not disappeared completely yet.
While the White House debt ceiling agreement is great news, the US government still has a cash flow problem that should be settled in due time.
Investors are also bracing for potential volatility in US government bonds as the Treasury is expected to quickly replenish its empty purse with bonds once the debt ceiling is raised.
Liquidity is set to decline while interest rate expectations will increase. This will cause banks and non-AI stocks to fall behind. Among the market sectors that could benefit from the deal are defense and energy stocks, which underperformed during the talks.
After the euphoria of reaching the agreement ebbs away, the market will have to assess how spending cuts can affect specific sectors, as well as the US economy as a whole.
Besides, a rather tough and prolonged political standoff in Washington may prompt rating agencies to downgrade the US credit rating. Rating agency Fitch placed the US credit rating under watch for a possible downgrade late Wednesday, while Morningstar placed the US credit ratings on Thursday with "negative implications".
Previously, S&P Global stripped the United States of its top AAA rating due to a debt ceiling issue back in 2011, days after the last-minute deal.
The downgrade contributed to the fall in US stocks, causing the S&P 500 to lose about 17% between late July and mid-August 2011.
In addition, do not forget that the week will be loaded with crucial data on US employment. The prospect of a default is taking a back seat for a while. Hence, the market is now focused on the Fed’s policy agenda. Last week's data showed jobless claims falling, personal incomes rising, the labor market strong and inflationary pressures rising again.
In this context, investors attach importance to the nonfarm payrolls for May. The US public and private sectors are expected to add 180,000 jobs excluding farm employment. Wage growth could have eased a bit. The jobless rate could be increased. Any surprise could dampen market sentiment.

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