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16.03.2023: Oil prices sink on banking fears. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB
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The foreign exchange and energy markets plummeted on the news that the banking crisis had spread from the United States to Europe, leaving Credit Suisse on the verge of bankruptcy.
Such a steep decline in oil prices was triggered by fears that the global economy would eventually slide into a deep recession, thus dragging demand sharply down. Now, much will depend on the European Central Bank. If Christine Lagarde is able to calm investors, the market will see a rebound.
Moreover, the oil market is extremely oversold and needs at least a slight correction.
From a technical point of view, given that the downside momentum is still strong, oil prices are expected to extend losses, heading toward the level of 70. However, a technical oversold signal may well force sellers to lock in profits in the near future. This in turn will lead to an upward pullback.
The only asset that is reaping the benefits of the current situation is gold. The yellow metal even rose to $1,940 per ounce. However, it failed to extend gains but pulled back to the level of $1,910 per ounce, weighed down by its overbought status. Thus, gold appears to have exhausted its upside potential, at least for now. It needs some sort of correction. As is the case with oil, much depends on Christine Lagarde's speech. Only her comments may bring the quote below $1,900 per ounce. However, a decline is likely to be short-lived. It may help reduce stress levels in the market and pave the way for further gains. After all, rising global risks are forcing investors to shift their focus to safe-haven instruments, including gold. Therefore, it can be assumed that a rise above the February high followed by a move towards the control level of 2,000 is not far away.
The Russian currency continues to trade in the range from 75 to 76 rubles, preserving incredible stability. However, panic that had gripped financial markets following the news about Credit Suisse still affected the ruble. Yesterday, the ruble made no attempts to go below the level of 75 rubles for the first time in several days. Currently, it is trading just above 76 rubles. There is a risk that the situation in Europe could have an impact on the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. Instead of leaving the key rate unchanged, the regulator may lower it. However, the situation will hardly change dramatically until tomorrow's meeting of the central bank’s board members.

00:00 Introduction
00:15 Oil Market situation
00:36 Brent
01:04 Gold
02:14 USD/RUB
02:59 Conclusion

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