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18.09.2023: USD continues gaining in value despite obstacles. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
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Although the US dollar is finding it more difficult to rise higher, traders will hardly see a correction soon. The fact is that traders are not pricing in any more the data that reflects the US economy's capability to cope with the Fed’s combat against high inflation without losses. Thus, on Friday, investors learnt that US industrial production showed faster growth of 0.2% compared to 0.0%. However, the greenback inched down instead of gaining in value. Notably, the data turned out to be well above the forecast that suggested a faster decline of 0.5% compared to a drop of 0.2%. In other words, the indicator increased instead of falling, and the previous figures were upwardly revised. In fact, the US currency should have grown, but it failed because of overbought conditions. Thus, even such a positive report did not allow the US dollar to inch up. Judging by the situation we saw on Friday, investors are looking forward to a correction. Today, their dream may come true amid an absolutely empty macroeconomic calendar. In addition, the market should prepare for the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is likely to take a more hawkish stance than the European Central Bank. In this light, the overbought US dollar may pose a significant risk to traders. The fact is that a tighter monetary policy will boost the greenback. On the trading chart, we see that the euro/dollar pair returned to the earlier broken support level in the range of 1.0650/1.0680 after an insignificant rise. This movement could be explained by the overheating of short positions on the euro and the breakout and rebound patterns that have been seen since a breakout of important levels. The price settlement below 1.0650 may raise the likelihood of a deeper decline in the euro. However, at present, the single currency is considered oversold. That is why the price may rebound and stagnate. Meanwhile, the pound sterling continues falling, ignoring the technical signal of oversold conditions. The support level of 1.2350 may become an obstacle for sellers and cause a drop in short positions. This, in turn, may spur a rebound and a partial recovery of the pound sterling. However, to continue falling and change the mid-term sentiment, the price should be below 1.2300 on the daily period.

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00:00 INTRO
00:23 US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, Y/Y
00:57 USD
01:23 FED KEY INTEREST RATE
01:45 EUR | USD
02:30 GBP | USD
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