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31.07.2017 02:37 PM
Inflation in the euro area is far from ideal

Today's data on inflation in the euro area did not exert strong pressure on the European currency, but also did not lead to a sharp demand for risky assets.

Compared to June of this year, the annual inflation in the euro area in July remained unchanged at 1.3%, which is the lowest level this year. Core inflation, which does not take into account volatile categories, has slightly increased, despite the slowdown in prices for services. According to the report, the basic consumer price index rose by 1.2%.

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Such weak data on inflation continue to "bind hands" to the European Central Bank, which expects to reach the target level, located just below 2%.

The unemployment rate continued to decline in the euro area. According to the statistics agency, the unemployment rate in June this year fell to 9.1%, which is the lowest value since February 2009. In May, the data was also revised for the better. Initially, it was reported that in May, unemployment was 9.3% against the final value of 9.2%. Economists had expected that in June, unemployment would be 9.2%.

In the market, there was a talk that the expected slowdown in asset purchases is the first signal that the ECB will announce the curtailment of the quantitative easing program in the fall of this year. However, according to some leading economic agencies, the current slowdown in purchases from the ECB is directly related to the seasonal factor due to the summer decline in bond issues. It is expected that in August of this year, the ECB will purchase bonds for a sum of only 52 billion euros, while the planned volume is 60 billion euros, which will remain until the end of December this year.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the low volatility along with a low volume of trading may continue in the afternoon. The pair is in the middle of the channel 1.1720, the lower border of which is located at 1.1670, and the upper one is in the range of the monthly maximum of 1.1770. The pair's upside potential persists, but a slight downward correction in the trading instrument at the beginning of this month is likely, which may be noticeable in the first half of this week.

The British pound today fell slightly in the morning against the US dollar after it became known that the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in June this year fell. This indicates a slowdown in activity in the housing market and a reduction in consumer spending. According to the report of the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans was 64 684 against 65 109 in May.

Jakub Novak,
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