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02.04.2019 12:23 PM
EUR/USD. April 2. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Now, the European currency is reduced due to the weak macroeconomic statistics

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -113.6938

On Tuesday, April 2, the currency pair EUR/USD resumed its fall and came close to the lower boundary of an important and strong support area of 1.1200 - 1.1270. It seems that this time, this area will still be overcome, but the chances for the eighth rebound from it also remain. Also, the price is now rested on the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1.1200. Yesterday was marked by the failure of macroeconomic statistics in the European Union and in the States. However, if in America at least the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector turned out to be better than expected, in Europe there was no such smoothing negative effect. Therefore, we saw another, if not collapse, then a decline in the euro currency. At present, the calendar of Europe is empty, and in America reports on orders for durable goods will be published. This is quite an important indicator, so a weaker value, rather than market expectations, may cause the long-awaited support of the European currency. Conversely, the strong value of these reports will send a pair below 1.1200. From a technical point of view, there is no reason to assume that the pair will turn up. Even the fastest Heikin Ashi indicator keeps pointing down. Therefore, we recommend to follow the trend and not trying to guess the next reversal of the pair to the top.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1200

S2 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1261

R3 - 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade short positions with targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a new round of corrective movement.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving average line with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
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